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Forecast
$FCSTyields KALSHIPrediction-market basis against the event contract, not the equity.
Basis+249bpsbelow mark
Mark vs marketmultiplier 0.9963×
SPV mark$894.50 unscaled × 0.9963$891.20
Executable market$869.57
Gap+2.49%
Both bars are in the market's units: the mark is scaled by the mint's multiplier before comparing. Unscaled, they are not comparable, and the gap would read as −75% while the basis reads +2433bps — the same fact with opposite signs.
No pool is trading yet, so there is no price history to chart. The market figure is a live Jupiter quote; the mark is the issuer's SPV reference.
fcst.log6 lines
19:36:23ZSIG pyth Equity.US.AAPL/USD → $339.2400 exp -5 conf ±1500
19:36:23ZINFOoracle account D9uk39pqZMcnmtPP9WeC8cREUpKZmyXLga9mSQ79SphW
19:36:28ZATT regime LIVE — reference stale 0.0h (last print 2026-09-21T19:36:23.000Z)
19:36:28ZSIG spv mark $894.50 vs market $869.57 → basis +249bps
19:36:28ZINFOscaledUiAmount multiplier 0.9963× recovered from quote/token-price
19:36:28ZHOLDno action: reference is live
Market detail
- Route
- Meteora DLMM
- Price impact
- 0.000%
- Issuer price
- $872.80unscaled
- Supply
- 905
- Implied valuation
- $31.75B
- Mark valuation
- $32.53B
You receive (KALSHI)—
Quoted and settled through Jupiter on Solana mainnet. The route shown is the real one; the signature is yours.
Curve34.0% 750 wPreStock to migration
Curve fee5.5%
Creator8rSv…FgHi
Your dividends
Staked—
Uncollected—
Paid in wKALSHI, redeemable 1:1 for the raw PreStock. Rewards stream over time, so claiming later pays more — the vault is not a lump sum.